The p(doom) database · person
Hanchi Sun’s p(doom)
30%
In their words
Hanchi Sun (PhD student, Lehigh University (CSE)) put their p(doom) at 30%, on X on Mar 31, 2024.
just increased my p(doom) from 10% to 30%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from 10%, in reaction to a poll result.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.