The p(doom) database · person
Paul Christiano’s p(doom)
4% / 15%
In their words
Paul Christiano (Founder, ARC; OpenAI Foundation board) put their p(doom) at 4% / 15% (catastrophic and irreversible loss of control, 1 year / 3 years), in an article on Sep 9, 2026.
If I had to quantify my uncertainty I would estimate an all-things-considered risk of 4% over the next year and 15% over the next three years
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Personal statement on joining the OpenAI board.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | 4% / 15% | catastrophic and irreversible loss of control · 1 year / 3 years | article |
| Apr 27, 2023 | 46% | irreversibly messed-up future (takeover 22% + extinction 9% + other 15%) · within 10 years of building powerful AI | forum |
| Apr 21, 2023 | 10–20% | AI takeover with many or most humans dead; separately 'maybe a 50/50 chance of catastrophe shortly after we have systems at the human level' | podcast |
In context
Among ex-frontier labs in the database (8 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.