The p(doom) database · person
Auguste Prompt’s p(doom)
5% with ASI
In their words
Auguste Prompt (Pseudonymous writer on X (~12k followers)) put their p(doom) at 5% with ASI (p(doom) if ASI is built), on X on Aug 8, 2026.
Without ASI the risk of me dying is 100% and my p(doom) is 80%. With ASI the risk of me dying is 20% and my p(doom) is 5%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Inverse framing: 5% with ASI, 80% without it. Established pseudonym.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.