The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Timothy Gowers’s p(doom)
?
What they said
Timothy Gowers was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Oct 16, 2026) and did not give a number.
I don't have a p(doom), but in particular I can't confidently say that my p(doom) is close to zero, which is a worrying position to be in.
Summary line of a long thread on AI risk; also encourages mathematicians to consider working on AI safety.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Timothy Gowers states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.