The p(doom) database · person
Matthew Tromp’s p(doom)
70%
In their words
Matthew Tromp (AI safety advocate (stop frontier development)) put their p(doom) at 70%, on X on Jul 19, 2026.
I have recently had a complete flip in my p(doom) (from "not worth thinking about" to 70%).
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.