The p(doom) database · person
Emmett Shear’s p(doom)
5–50%
In their words
Emmett Shear (Co-founder, Twitch; former interim CEO, OpenAI) put their p(doom) at 5–50% (existential catastrophe from AI), in an article on Jun 17, 2023.
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
HuffPost paraphrase of a Logan Bartlett Show clip Shear reposted himself, June 2023. No verbatim transcript read.
In context
Among ex-frontier labs in the database (8 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.