The p(doom) database · person
Richard Ngo’s p(doom)
31%
In their words
Richard Ngo (AI researcher (then OpenAI governance)) put their p(doom) at 31% (p(doom) incl. takeover plus misuse catastrophes; 33% of mass assigned to Knightian uncertainty), (forum) on Apr 28, 2023.
P(takeover) = 24%, P(doom) = 31%, P(fine) = 36%, P(???) = 33%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Comment under Paul Christiano's 'My views on doom'.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.