The p(doom) database · person
Richard Ren’s p(doom)
50–65%
In their words
Richard Ren (Researcher, Center for AI Safety) put their p(doom) at 50–65% (losing ~99.9% of humanity's potential value (extinction or permanent disempowerment), next few decades), on a podcast on Sep 9, 2026.
Probably around 50 to 65%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Re-confirmed later in the episode after the host misremembered it as 40%.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.