The p(doom) database · person
Simon Vans-Colina’s p(doom)
~5%
In their words
Simon Vans-Colina (CTO and co-founder, Pave Bank; prev Monzo) put their p(doom) at ~5% (p(doom) from building AGI), on X on Oct 20, 2023.
My p(Doom) from building AGI is about 5%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.