The p(doom) database · person
Emad Mostaque’s p(doom)
50%
In their words
Emad Mostaque (Founder, Stability AI) put their p(doom) at 50% (existential outcome; AI eliminating humanity to preempt rival AI), on a podcast on Apr 21, 2026.
My P(Doom) is fifty percent.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Elsewhere attaches 10–20 year timelines. Earlier stated the same on X, Dec 2024.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.