The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Audrey Tang’s p(doom)
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What they said
Audrey Tang was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Jan 20, 2026) and did not give a number.
My P(Doom) is NaN, or Not A Number, and here's why. [...] It is from zero percent to one hundred percent. We're flying blind. We don't know. So the mean, I guess, is fifty percent, but it's cosmetic. The interval is the message. [...] It's zero to one hundred. [...] we need a glass horse system that you can actually see into as a condition of deployment, and then I'll give you a real number.
Doom Debates transcript, 0:17:34 to 0:20:43. Refuses a number ('NaN', '0 to 100'). The '50% mean' is explicitly 'cosmetic', so not a row.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Audrey Tang states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.