The p(doom) database · person
Nathan Worsley’s p(doom)
1%
In their words
Nathan Worsley (Captain, euphoria.fi (crypto trading)) put their p(doom) at 1%, on X on Sep 16, 2026.
I have raised my p(doom) from 0% to 1%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from 0%.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.