The p(doom) database · person
Geoffrey Miller’s p(doom)
50%
In their words
Geoffrey Miller (Evolutionary psychologist, University of New Mexico) put their p(doom) at 50% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates, this century), on a podcast on Jul 24, 2025.
50%. But also with broad uncertainty and margins of error. We could push the P(Doom) as low as 5% in this century, and if we were really stupid, we could push it as high as 80%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Contingent on human behavior: 5% to 80% depending on societal response.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.