The p(doom) database · person
Devin Elliot’s p(doom)
zero
In their words
Devin Elliot (Software engineer building AI systems; former pro snowboarder) put their p(doom) at zero (AI doom), on a podcast on Dec 17, 2025.
I do not have a P(Doom). Like, it's just a zero number. I guess the way that I think about it is, I think about P(Doom) as sort of the answer to the wrong question. There's plenty of ways we annihilate ourselves. I don't think it's from this version of an AI doing that.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Doom Debates 00:03:33 (edited transcript on the post). 'It's just a zero number' maps to 0% under the plain-language rule.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.