The p(doom) database · person
Chon Tang’s p(doom)
~10%
In their words
Chon Tang (VC, Berkeley SkyDeck; former quant) put their p(doom) at ~10%, on X on Dec 2, 2023.
P(doom) is probably 10%, but p(god) within the next decade is at least 50% in my opinion.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.