The p(doom) database · person
Lumpenspace’s p(doom)
~30%
In their words
Lumpenspace (AI accelerationist writer (pseudonymous)) put their p(doom) at ~30% (no biological humans exist), on a podcast on May 7, 2026.
If you mean no biological humans exist in the universe, that might be close to 30 maybe.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
~0% if doom means nothing of value exists; ~30% only for the no-biological-humans definition.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.