Tenobrus’s p(doom)
In their words
Tenobrus (AI engineer and commentator (pseudonymous)) put their p(doom) at ≈20% (p(doom), extinction, own trajectory: ~80% five years ago, ~30%, now ~20%), on X on Sep 21, 2026.
personally over the course of the last five years my "p(doom)" has gone from ~80ish down to 30ish and as of recently 20ish. i have updated significantly on many anti-doom datapoints (and also observed confirmation of many many other predicted ones)!
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Pseudonymous but an established AI-discourse account (~37k followers), included on the Lumpenspace precedent. Found by the Grok Bot X watch. Wording per the Bot until the post is read directly.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.