The p(doom) database · person
Greg Emerson’s p(doom)
0
In their words
Greg Emerson (Managing director and senior partner, BCG; leads technology investing) put their p(doom) at 0, on X on Oct 9, 2026.
persistent jagged intelligence is GOOD for humanity. Transformative AI that still leaves a meaningful role for human judgment and agency. It's why my p(doom) = 0.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Thread on post-training compute; links his BCG piece with Ulrich Pidun on AGI timelines.
In context
Among investors in the database (15 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.