The p(doom) database · person
Ben Smith’s p(doom)
5–10%
In their words
Ben Smith (AI research scientist, University of Oregon) put their p(doom) at 5–10%, on X on Apr 5, 2024.
my P(Doom) has been 5-10% for the last 2 years or so
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Under 1k followers; passes on named role.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.