The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Kenneth Stanley’s p(doom)
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What they said
Kenneth Stanley was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Jan 6, 2025) and did not give a number.
And I think if I give you a p-doom, I will immediately polarize your audience. ... I just don't really want to be pigeonholed into this number.
Asked on Doom Debates (~58:30-59:05, auto-transcript). Stake ex-lab. He also says a 50% p(doom) is 'within reason' given his wide error bars, which is not his own number.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Kenneth Stanley states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.