The p(doom) database · person
Liv Boeree’s p(doom)
5–99%
In their words
Liv Boeree (Poker champion; science communicator) put their p(doom) at 5–99% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Sep 24, 2025.
Um, I mean, it's somewhere between five and 99%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Calls it "a hot mess of a probability distribution"; even 5% is unacceptable to her.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.