The p(doom) database · person
American HODL (@americanhodl8)’s p(doom)
0
In their words
American HODL (@americanhodl8) (Pseudonymous bitcoin investor on X (~98k followers)) put their p(doom) at 0, on X on Oct 5, 2026.
My p(doom) is zero my p(btc) is 100
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Established pseudonym.
In context
Among investors in the database (15 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.