The p(doom) database · person
Vinod Khosla’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Vinod Khosla (Founder, Khosla Ventures) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (sentient AI killing humanity), (speech) on Dec 12, 2023.
It's sort of not worthy of a conversation to be honest. [...] By far, orders of magnitude, higher risk to worry about, is China, not sentient AI killing us off.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Fortune Brainstorm AI. Says the risk is 'about the same risk as that of an asteroid hitting our planet.'
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.