The p(doom) database · person
Nathan Young’s p(doom)
5%
In their words
Nathan Young (Director, Goodheart Labs; forecaster) put their p(doom) at 5%, on X on Aug 14, 2024.
People are surprised that my P(doom) is 5%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2024 | 5% | p(doom) | x |
| Nov 27, 2023 | ~4% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.