The p(doom) database · person
Rafael Ruiz de Lira’s p(doom)
10–30%
In their words
Rafael Ruiz de Lira (PhD candidate in philosophy, LSE; effective altruist) put their p(doom) at 10–30%, on X on Sep 20, 2026.
Perhaps I'd put it in the 10-30% range, with high uncertainty?
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Adds he wouldn't go above 90% because he doesn't trust any world model that much.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | 10–30% | p(doom) | x |
| Mar 26, 2026 | ~10% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.