The p(doom) database · person
Rob Wiblin’s p(doom)
~10%
In their words
Rob Wiblin (Host, The 80,000 Hours Podcast) put their p(doom) at ~10% (p(doom); terrible outcome from AI), on a podcast on Jul 26, 2024.
I think my estimate is something similar. Maybe a touch higher than that, but it's hovering at around 10%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Stated while interviewing Vitalik Buterin.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.