The p(doom) database · person
Curtis Huebner’s p(doom)
90%
In their words
Curtis Huebner (Head of Alignment, EleutherAI) put their p(doom) at 90% (AI extinction / 'we are toast'), on a podcast on Jul 16, 2023.
If you had to ask me for a number, I think I would say like, we are 90% toast. And the reason I'm saying 90%, instead of like 99.99%, or something like that, is mainly because I do believe that there's a great deal of uncertainty
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Later in the same answer: 'like 90-99% chance that we're all toast' when asked to set aside model uncertainty.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.