The p(doom) database · person
Simon Willison’s p(doom)
maybe 5%
In their words
Simon Willison (Creator of Datasette and the LLM CLI; independent developer and blogger) put their p(doom) at maybe 5% (AI doom (asked whether Llama 2 moved it)), on a podcast on Jul 19, 2023.
My, my needle is, is stuck on the sort of metal, maybe 5%, but, but not worth thinking about. Too hard.
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
"but not worth thinking about. Too hard." Auto-transcript is garbled around the number.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.