The p(doom) database · person
Aella’s p(doom)
75%
In their words
Aella (Writer and researcher, PlzDontKillUs) put their p(doom) at 75% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Aug 26, 2026.
Liron: That's why you're saying 75% P(Doom). Aella: Yeah. It's a lot higher than I would like it to be.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Figure stated by the host and confirmed by her on air.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.