Garrison Lovely’s p(doom)
In their words
Garrison Lovely (Journalist; author of Obsolete) put their p(doom) at 0–50% (extinction largely driven by AI by 2050; ~0 if we stop, "like a coin flip" if we build it as fast as possible, 2050), on a podcast on Sep 29, 2026.
Zero to fifty. And... if we stop it, we will not go extinct from AI. If we build it as fast as possible, then I think it's kind of like a coin flip.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Doom Debates, asked for P(Extinction) by 2050. Same episode: P(Bad) "zero to ninety-five percent"; says he "used to tell people privately" ten to ninety percent.
In context
Among media in the database (35 people), the median is 10%. Across all 224 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.