The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Alex Bores’s p(doom)
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What they said
Alex Bores was asked for a p(doom) on the record (May 13, 2026) and did not give a number.
Ben Smith: Like 5%, 10%? Alex Bores: I wouldn't put a number on it, but I think a lot of the debates on it, is it 5%, is it 10%, is it 50%, is it 90%? If your chance of human extinction is measurable in percentage points, the federal government should be thinking about it and acting on it. Ben Smith: Do you think it is in integers? Alex Bores: Yes. The median AI researcher, when polled, puts the risk of extinction at 10%. Ben Smith: Do you think that's reasonable? Alex Bores: I think so.
Said he "wouldn't put a number on it"; agreed it is measurable in whole percentage points and that 10% is reasonable. Not recorded as a number.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Alex Bores states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.