The p(doom) database · person
Justin Helps’s p(doom)
70%
In their words
Justin Helps (Science educator, Primer) put their p(doom) at 70% (AI takeover, all time, by 2100), on a podcast on Apr 30, 2026.
If you're talking P(Doom) for all time, I guess I put 70% at 2100 is the number I put in the video. So it's pretty high in the long run, but it's a lot lower in the short run.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Much lower short-run figure; episode notes cite 5% by 2040.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.