Max Tegmark’s p(doom)
In their words
Max Tegmark (MIT physicist; president, Future of Life Institute) put their p(doom) at >90% (loss of human control over superintelligence, if no regulation), on a podcast on Nov 21, 2025.
When I said P(doom) of over 90%, that was if we do no regulation. I am actually quite optimistic because I don't think China will allow a race to superintelligence
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional on no tough regulation; derived from his MIT paper on scalable oversight failing 92% of the time in the most optimistic scenario.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.