The p(doom) database · person
Irina Rish’s p(doom)
<1%
In their words
Irina Rish (Professor, Mila / Université de Montréal) put their p(doom) at <1% (extinction from purely AI issues, conditional on AGI being built (excludes humans using AI as weapons)), on a podcast on Oct 18, 2022.
What's your probability of humanity going extinct? Is it like 1%, 10%, 99%? — I would say less than 1%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Separately puts humanity destroying itself by any cause at 'less than 20%'.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.