The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Sam Altman’s p(doom)
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What they said
Sam Altman was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Mar 1, 2026) and did not give a number.
I have never known how to put an exact number on p(doom), to say nothing of how to think about the differential. I will say this: if I thought going to work every day made it less likely that we all continue to thrive into the future, I would retire and just hang with my kids.
Reply to Geoffrey Miller (@gmiller) asking 'what's the maximum p(doom) you're willing to impose on all of our kids'. Verified via syndication API. Wikipedia's '>0%' for Altman is words, not a number.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Sam Altman states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.