The p(doom) database · person
Phil Libin’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Phil Libin (Co-founder and CEO of All Turtles and mmhmm; co-founder and former CEO of Evernote) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Jul 16, 2025.
My p(doom) remains close to zero.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.