The p(doom) database · person
Pasha Kamyshev’s p(doom)
~5%
In their words
Pasha Kamyshev (Science-fiction author (Will of the Stars)) put their p(doom) at ~5% (extinction (in a thread on AI risk)), on X on Sep 10, 2026.
My p(global war this century) is ~80%, but my p(extinction) is still around ~5%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
The thread's context: the main AI danger is persuasion that starts a global war, not grey goo.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.