The p(doom) database · person
Geoffrey Hinton’s p(doom)
10%
In their words
Geoffrey Hinton (Nobel laureate; University of Toronto) put their p(doom) at 10% (AI kills all humans, within a decade), in an interview on Sep 9, 2026.
A 10% chance seems not an unreasonable estimate to me. But nobody really knows how to give a sensible estimate.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
BBC Newsnight, endorsing Hubinger's framing; said it would be "very foolish to say 1%."
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | 10% | AI kills all humans · within a decade | interview |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 10–20% | AI catastrophe / extinction · within 30 years | article |
In context
Among ex-frontier labs in the database (8 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.