Jamshid Hormuzdiar’s p(doom)
In their words
Jamshid Hormuzdiar (Tech founder building with AI at STRATO (BlockApps); former particle physicist) put their p(doom) at 5%, on X on Oct 1, 2026.
A year ago my P(doom) was 10%-20%. We understand AI better now (I code with it professionally every day). My P(doom) has dropped to 5%. I raise it to 40% if the slowdown/regulation guys get their way.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional: 40% "if the slowdown/regulation guys get their way". Says the year-earlier figure was 10–20%. Restated "my P(doom) is maybe 5%" on Oct 7. BlockApps lists a co-founder James (Jim) Hormuzdiar; matched by surname and the STRATO link in his bio.
In context
Among building AI in the database (37 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.