The p(doom) database · person
Mike Israetel’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Mike Israetel (Exercise scientist, Renaissance Periodization) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on May 12, 2026.
It's functionally close to zero because I take a ton of stops... So it's like each stop is 1%. Then we get 1% multiplied by 1% multiplied by 1%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
No exact figure; "zeros repeating and then one somewhere down."
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.