The p(doom) database · person
Jeremy Gillen’s p(doom)
90–99%
In their words
Jeremy Gillen (Researcher, MIRI) put their p(doom) at 90–99% (AI doom, conditional on rushing into superintelligence), on a podcast on Nov 14, 2025.
I don't know, like pretty high. Probably higher than 90%, probably lower than 99%, in that kind of region. This is also conditioning on rushing forward into superintelligence.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says he hasn't put much thought into the number.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.