The p(doom) database · person
Peter Berezin’s p(doom)
~75%
In their words
Peter Berezin (Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research, BCA Research) put their p(doom) at ~75% (p(doom), answered directly to 'what is your P-Doom?'), on a podcast on Apr 9, 2025.
I'm going to say like 75%, which is, by the way, exactly the same probability attached to a recession in the US this year. I think it's high. I think it's quite high.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Investment strategist (BCA Research), not an AI investor. Answered "what is your P-Doom?" directly.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.