The p(doom) database · person
Steve Phillips’s p(doom)
80%
In their words
Steve Phillips (Privacy hacker, DEF CON speaker) put their p(doom) at 80% (p(doom), AI risk), on X on Mar 8, 2025.
my p(doom) is 80%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 80% | p(doom), AI risk | x |
| Nov 18, 2023 | ~90% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.