The p(doom) database · person
Florian Brand’s p(doom)
0%
In their words
Florian Brand (Open-model community figure and LLM evals writer (@xeophon)) put their p(doom) at 0% (p(doom), unqualified), on X on Sep 21, 2026.
my p(doom) is 0
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Found by the Grok Bot X watch (first day of the daily routine). Post read directly by the maintainer Sept 22.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.