The p(doom) database · person
Mark Friedenbach’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Mark Friedenbach (Technologist (bio: "Shaping the future, one atom at a time")) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Nov 27, 2023.
My likelihood of p(doom) is so small as to be indistinguishable from zero.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Reply in a thread about a hypothetical; the number itself is stated plainly.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.