The p(doom) database · person
Zy’s p(doom)
0.2%
In their words
Zy (X commentator) put their p(doom) at 0.2% (p(doom) from AI), on X on Oct 16, 2025.
my p(doom) from AI is .2%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Separately gives 60% for doom from all causes.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.