The p(doom) database · person
Evan Hubinger’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
Evan Hubinger (Alignment science lead, Anthropic) put their p(doom) at >10% (AI kills all humans, within the next decade), in an article on Sep 9, 2026.
I personally think it is >10% within the next decade
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Adds that risk from current models is low.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.