The p(doom) database · person
Tristan Harris’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Tristan Harris (Co-founder, Center for Humane Technology) put their p(doom) at >50% (AI kills everybody or destroys >99% of potential value, by 2050), on a podcast on Apr 14, 2026.
Liron: So we're talking 50% plus? Tristan: More than 50%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional: "if we don't change course."
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.