The p(doom) database · person
John (@jrysana)’s p(doom)
~0%
In their words
John (@jrysana) (CEO, Rysana) put their p(doom) at ~0%, on X on Nov 29, 2023.
p(doom) is ~0% according to my own thinking
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
First name only; identifiable via handle and role.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.