The p(doom) database · person
Joe Allen’s p(doom)
~1%
In their words
Joe Allen (Author of Dark Aeon; Omega Point Podcast) put their p(doom) at ~1%, on X on Jan 30, 2025.
My own P(doom) is ~1% with AI.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.